01Free savings first
Before quoting anything we moved the dishwasher, the laundry and the car charging to after 9 pm and set the thermostat to pre-cool between 1 and 3 pm. That alone took $188 off the annual bill at the sample rates, with no equipment at all.
02Then the arithmetic
What remained in the 3 to 7 pm window averaged 8.4 kWh a weekday. At an on-peak price of 23.77 cents and an off-peak price of 8.36 cents, and allowing 90 percent round-trip efficiency, each shifted kWh is worth 14.5 cents in summer.
03Being straight about the payback
That is roughly $271 a year against an installed cost of $15,900. We told them plainly that arbitrage alone will never pay this back, and that they were buying resilience and rate insurance with a modest offset.
04What changed their mind
Two outages in the preceding eighteen months, a home office and a chest freezer. They bought it anyway, with their eyes open, which is the only way we want anyone buying one.