01Start with the load, not the catalogue
The mechanical contractor's original proposal was a 4 ton system based on square footage. The room-by-room Manual J against Boulder County's 2 degree F winter design temperature came out at 34,800 Btu per hour, which is a 3 ton machine with room to spare.
02What the size drop bought
One size smaller on the heat pump saved about $3,100 and reduced the electrical load calculation enough that the 48 A charger and the heat pump both fit on the 200 A service without load management.
03Sizing the array against an all-electric house
With no gas meter at all, everything lands on the electric bill: space heat, water heat, cooking and roughly 9,000 miles of driving. The array at 11.4 kW DC covers 90 percent of the 17,940 kWh the house used in its first full year.
04The ventilation footnote
At 2.4 ACH50 this house is too tight to breathe on its own. A balanced heat recovery ventilator runs continuously at low speed, recovering most of the heat from the outgoing air.